Shoguns Land

What is Shoguns Land?

“I have lost money that was going to be used for my kids’ Christmas presents,” one respondent disclosed. “It led to stress with my wife after having to borrow from her parents to make up that money.”

Another bettor noted that gambling debts fractured personal relationships: “Sports betting ruined my six years of friendship because I couldn’t pay back the borrowed loan from my friend. He stopped talking to me.”

Americans wagered nearly $167 billion on sports in 2025 through regulated sportsbooks, an 11% increase year-over-year, according to data from the American Gaming Association (AGA).

What is Shoguns Land?

The US land-based casino market had begun to mature and the number of obvious new markets and projects was shrinking. Online gambling offered a new source of growth, particularly through the expansion of legal sports betting. That opportunity was quickly reflected in share prices.

The problem is that legalisation has not happened as quickly as expected, while taxes and competition have increased. “Online gaming has been affected by the broader re-rating of growth-oriented internet and software stocks,” says Chad Beynon, managing director and head of US research at Macquarie Capital. “But there has also been a genuine deterioration in expectations for parts of the sector.”

Beynon says sports betting companies have suffered particularly badly because the market is questioning both future earnings and the size of the eventual opportunity. More iGaming-focused companies such as Rush Street Interactive and Super Group have generally performed better operationally, helped by stronger earnings growth and profitability.

About Shoguns Land

Prediction market operators are on legal losing streaks, confirming that Beynon is onto something when he says the regulatory environment is the biggest risk facing the industry.

“We continue to view regulation as the largest risk to prediction markets,” says the analyst. “While industry growth remains robust, adverse legal outcomes could materially impact sports contract availability and long-term adoption.”

Amid a string of losses in federal appellate courts, it appears increasingly prediction markets are angling to take their cases to the U.S. Supreme Court, banking that the high court will allow them to continue offering sports event contracts free of state gambling regulations.