Big Small

What is Big Small?

Even before the primetime matchup in Kansas City, it became abundantly clear that the industry would shatter previous marks for weekly activity. The AFC West showdown bolstered the already robust totals. Overall, volume for the week hit a record $15.9 billion, according to Bank of America, up 16% from a week earlier.

The pure-play prediction market-operators, Polymarket and Kalshi, emerged from Week 1 as the clear winners. On one hand, Kalshi’s market share lead narrowed over its competitors, falling to 82% for the week ended 13 September, down from 86% a week earlier.

Still, Kalshi had a nine-fold lead over Polymarket, its next closest rival. Polymarket, meanwhile, led the group with 762,000 app downloads, edging Kalshi, DraftKings and FanDuel in the category. The downloads represented a 13,509% weekly increase and 25% of total category downloads, Polymarket wrote in a statement.

What is Big Small?

Jefferies described market makers as the ecosystem’s “liquidity backbone”. They post executable bids and offers, manage inventory and provide prices when customer activity is heavily weighted to one side.

The analysts estimated that an operator capturing a one-cent spread and managing its exposure successfully could generate net economics of approximately $1.69 on a $100 trade. Returns are not guaranteed: adverse price movements and unresolved inventory can offset or exceed income from spreads, rebates and liquidity incentives.

The operational infrastructure available to these new firms, however, remains underdeveloped. Gonzalez contrasts prediction markets with equities, where trading businesses can use prime brokers, clearinghouses and standardised systems such as FIX.

What is Big Small?

“The Ministry of Finance reaffirms its determination to drive the reform of the gambling and games of chance sector in accordance with government directives, while upholding legal certainty for operators, transparency in activities and the protection of the Public Treasury’s interests,” said the press release, signed by Alain Malata Kafunda, the chief of staff to the DRC minister of finance.

The press release also warned operators against complying with any payment requests from departments that aren’t legally authorised to do so.

It called for any such acts to be reported immediately to the Ministry of Finance and the Directorate General of Administrative, Judicial, State Property and Equity Revenues (DGRAD).